Guide FailStacks

Here is a Link to a Google Docs File.
just put in the FS (FailStack) and see your chance on here

* Bass enhancement chances are the same as retail
* Kolka hads told this information

***edit***

i think he put a way better Formula then me.

 

it's 0.2% per failstack not 0.5%

 

Neither is your guide... Just sayin.

 

Kolka hads confirmed this information in the past 12h and the base enhancement chances are the same as retail

 

@Noyah Please have a look at it and check if the information being communicated is correct. This could lead to misscommunication.

 

If the event is indeed 30%, then the information is correct. -The events are not always the same and the success rates may be different.

 

Base enhancement chances are not the same !! +7 to +8 it's almost 100% with 0 FS, according to your chart we should have 20%

 

Thats a formula for the bonus percentage of failstacks. Doesn't have anything to do with the base percentage.

 

I'm not talking about his formula but about this "* Bass enhancement chances are the same as retail"
I've implemented his formula with the retail base enhancement and something is wrong

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lldPoPuCqupoiEpNseEqa_36rlAzePM3BFjaDApA6Ws

 

Thats because your math is wrong... I'll give you 5 minutes to find the mistake yourself. Good luck!

 

Just don't answer if you're here to troll...
Base success rate + nb FS * FS success rate. That's exactly what i did

 

Your claim is that the base enchantment chance is off. Why would you say that? Your tablet states that the enchantment chance on +7 to +8 is 29.75 on 15FS. The issue is that you don't take no FS in consideration. Put the FS count to 0, where every single +7 to +8 attempt will happen, and you'll end up with a flat 20%. That means that in an average of 5 tries you will succeed the enchant. 15FS will indeed only give you a success rate of 29.75% but that doesn't matter since the probability that you hit the enchantment before that is 1:5. The probability goes up for each FS added.

Meaning:

On 0 FS the probability is 1:5 to hit your +8 enchant
On 15FS the probability is 1:3.3~ to hit your +8 enchant

To put it differently. On a theoretical dice with five surfaces you would need to dice it five times to hit every single side once. If only one side would grand you a win, the chance you hit that side are 20%, yet in 5 throws you are on average guaranteed to hit the winning side once. The probability goes up each time you don't hit it. 0.8*0.8= 0.64. So after failing twice your probability of succeeding is 36%. This continues till you hit 0.99''. On average you hit your enchant on 3 tries.

 

Man i'm not stupid, i already know that.
You misunderstood my question. You're saying with 0 FS we have 20% of success +7 to +8, i'm telling you that's wrong we have 90-100% !

 

Prove it. I get my +8 on an average of 2-3 tries. What does your data say?

 

On 10 enhance i failed only 1 time, i can do +8 +9 +10 with only 1 or 2 fail2 when it's supposed to be only 20%

 

On your 2nd attempt

 

This part is wrong. The probability of landing a winning side does not go up the more you fail. Does not matter if you fail to roll 1 on a dice 1 million times, the chance of getting a 1 on the next roll will still be 1/6.

However, the chance of landing a successful enhancement on gear will increase per fail due to failstacks.

 

You don't get probability.. The chances are always the same yet the probability increases. The chances for a coinflip are 50/50. The probability to hit head 3 times in a row is 12.5%. 87.5% are different outcomes. Now convert it to the BDO rates of 20/80. The chances are 20/80. The probability to hit 5 enchantments in a row on the first try are 0.2^5 which is 0.032%. The probability to faill them all on the first try is 32,76%. The rest are different outcomes.

Now back to my example where I do indeed had a mistake.

Doing an enchantment twice with those rates would mean that the enchantment chance is the same, yet the probability of succeeding goes as followed:

Enchanting 2 items:
0.8*0.8 = 0.64
You fail both enchantments in a row with a probability of 64% on 0 FS

0.2*0.2 = 0.04
You succeseed both enchantments in a row with a probability of 4% on 0 FS

32% is the probability for a different outcome.


Now when it comes to failstacks it gets tricky:

Enchanting 1 item:

You will have 0.8*0.795 and 0.2*0.175.
What is now the outcome of the different possibilities?

0.8*0.795 = 0.636 or 63,6% for both failing.
0.2*0.175 = 0.035 or 3,5% for both hitting.

32.9% are different results. In this case hitting and failing or failing and hitting.


TLR

The chances of hitting +8 and +9 in a row are slim. Out of 100 times it will work 3 times without failing once while the probability to gain a hit increases with every fail due to the possibilities of a hit in the chain increases in numbers.

Probably got a typo somewhere but can't be bothered to change it now..

 

That is way better then what i put out