Infinite Potion grind. Over 140 hours. No Piece. Math does not add up.

I've been grinding Ronaros Forest Guardians & Catchers for a very long period of time, counting over 140 hours in total grind and probably 95k+ in monster number, which half of them (roughly) would be the targeted ones, although I highly doubt that it's *only* half of them since I focused them all the time. That leaves us with 45-50k mobs.

If the chance of dropping the infinite pot piece on retail is 0.005%, in GameZ It is supposed to be 0.045%, adding the +900%.

Using one of the many generic drop chance calculators on google, that would result in knowing that:
When loot box of 0.045% chance is performed 45000 times, the chance to get one or more is
99.9999998402
%

why am I listing all these facts? because either I got the drop chance % wrong, which is very possible, but also there might be the slight chance that there's something wrong with my account, which I believe is *might* be the case since literally everyone I know got his piece in 1 to 20 hours max.

I have spent a disgusting amount of hours grinding this spot to no avail, probably more than anyone that has ever attempted Ronaros Forest's Ron's Tintinnabulum, and this is why I'm making this thread. Please look into it and consider the possibility that there might be some sort of bug, because if I got the drop chance % right (as it is the drop chance of Archeologist's map piece and Upgraded Compass pieces), then it's either i'm the only guy who hit the 0.000000001% of not getting the ronaros piece in 50k monsters or there's something wrong with the drop tables. Thank you for your time.

Family Name: Epiphanyx | Server: EU

 

Drop Chance on games like BDO does not work like that.

I'll give you an example:
If an item has 50% drop chance it doesn't mean that u will get it if you kill two mobs:

If you kill 1 mob you have 50% of getting that item.
If you kill another mob you still have 50% chance of getting that item.
Killing two mobs does not add up the chances.


The same works for enanching
if an item has 50% chance to get to PEN it doesn't mean you will get a 100% PEN if you have 2 try.


Imagine having a fortune wheel, each time you kill a mob or you try enanching something you spin the wheel BUT the chances of hitting something does not adds up but resets each time you spin! Thats how RNG works.


Also i want to specific something, even if it feels like, there's no way that YOUR or ANYONE account is nerfed compared to another one unless the game has this mechanic by itself ( BDO doesn't have it ),

Sorry for my bad english i hope everything is clear.

 

No, his numbers are actually correct if the chance of dropping the item is 0.045%, after 45000 attempts he should have 99.999..% chance of having it. Plus to be honest, 45000 seems a really low number for a 140 hour grind. In fact, even if the chance was retail like, 0.005%, 45k mobs corresponds to a roughly 90% chance of getting the drop.

Unlucky.

 

I have largely lowballed my numbers to the worst case scenario, even though I made a Musa specifically to grinding Ronaros quickly and I’m very efficient at doing the rotation, but I underestimated the numbers just in case.

also my numbers are correct. I do understand how probability works and, strictly conceptually, not getting it in 45k catchers and guardians is like not winning a coin toss 100 times consecutively. It is possible but it’s extremely rare. This is the reason behind making this thread.

 

I would very much like to make this absolutely clear to you all; "This probability means that in the long term (over thousands of tickets), 10 percent of all instant lottery tickets purchased for this game will win a prize, and 90 percent won’t. It doesn’t mean that if you buy 10 tickets, one of them will automatically win." (https://www.dummies.com/education/math/figuring-out-what-probability-means/)

Chances, likelihood, odds, probability, these are all words that mean the same. The concept at the root of this meaning is RANDOMNESS; "Classical probability theory talks about random objects, for example by saying that if you randomly select four cards from a standard deck, the probability of getting four aces is very small. However, every configuration of four cards has the same small probability of appearing, so there is no qualitative difference between individual configurations in this setting. Similarly, if we flip a fair coin one hundred times, and we get a sequence of one hundred tails in succession, we may feel that this outcome is very special, but how do we justify our excitement over this outcome? Is the probability for this outcome not exactly the same as that of any other sequence of one hundred heads and tails?" (https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-26300-7_3)

It is NOT correct to assume, that with a VERY large number of tries, and a VERY small amount of chance, that you WILL get a success.

I can only suggest that you start investing, in the Node of the area in which you are "grinding", and that you get you character Luck stat up to +5. If you've already done this, then there isn't really anything you can do, but take a break from just mindlessly doing the same thing over and over again.

Trying to get ONE item to drop non-stop, while you're supposedly playing a game, isn't really enjoyment. So you will just have to figure out how to "play the game", so that you can enjoy it instead of getting more and more frustrated over a mere computer game.

 

I pretty much am in complete agreement with how you defined randomness and probability, except this sentence:

Getting a probable drop of any% with a 100% guarantee is infinitely impossible; that’s why your sentence is not wrong in this sense, although it doesn’t show the full picture.

It’s not correct to assume with a very large number of tries with a very small chance of success, you’d be guaranteed success. However it is correct to assume that the more you try, the higher your chance of winning. It’ll never be 100%, but as mentioned above 99.99998% is an acceptable level of certainty for me. Referring to my original post:

I’d like to know which is it from the Devs.

Edit: yeah ofc my node level is 8, loot scroll, tent buff 50%, hadum ch, S knowledge on mobs, kama blessing, and +5 luck , also I’m fine with the way I play the game thanks for your concern

Edit: your example of purchasing 10 lottery tickets with 10% out of the total pool would/would not guarantee a win is fundamentally flawed due to the total pool of the tickets being unknown. What if they’re all 10 tickets and you just purchased all of them? What if they are a billion tickets? This number is relative, and from there, you can calculate the winning % of every ticket you bought and the cumulative winning% of all the 10 random tickets.

 

The thing is, probability is NOT cumulative, as you can clearly see in the "flipping a coin" example quote.

It is NOT unreasonable to think, that you can get 100 heads with 100 coin flips, because every time the chance of getting heads or tails is the same. It is only human superstition, and the need to find patterns as well as meaning in random things, that make humans think that it is weird, or "special".

 

I believe it is unreasonable to think that you can get such a result so wildly far away from the predicted value, because of the existence of: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

 

Well, this is not a thread in need of support, so I'm moving it to a more suitable category.

@Omarsaadoun, how could you determine the drop chance of this item if there's no official informations on that? I would tell that you're missing at least one 0 there...

 

I couldn't determine the exact drop chance; however, all I could do is find an item with the same level of rarity and ascertain its drop chance from bdocodex, but in this case

I guess i'll just go back to grinding.. Thanks for the info!

 

I know it can be frustrating to deal with RNG, I'm the type of player that don't get involved with systems that has a lot of RNG so I don't have to deal with the frustration of it.
And it's normal trying to compare ourselfs with someone else that that got it in like 5 minutes... But we shouldn't do this.
Yeah, none of those databases has the correct numbers, of course you'll always find something here and there, but that doesn't mean it's true. Also, items with similar rarity doesn't share same rate, like Infinite Potion parts, that some players believe it's around 0.0005%.

 

on gamez or retail? O.O

I know that's what 'some' players think, but I just wanted the clarification on the sentence.

 

Retail and GameZ has the same rate, we don't change the source code, meaning we don't edit anything. The 10x drop rate you see is a simple buff, not changes to the rate itself.

 

I Dropped mine Pot Pieces within minutes- Hours : Kagtum 5 Hours after first piece drop i spend 5 more minutes and dropped a secondone so i got 2 in 5hours i can say ronaros was luckylucky 7minutes counted in my LS was at 53 minutes but then Sherekan i had atleast 20 hours there till it dropped. next up MP pieces Tshira 45min later i started grinding at Manshaums meen this makes me crazy too but after 25hours i changed for gathering piece 3 hours in and no piece so got back to manshaums and 5 more hours and i decided to give Gamez a Donation and bought the 2 pieces u should do this too better then frustating 140hours lul

 

its available in the gamezbd cash shop so that should tell you something about the drop rate

i believe you can collect some sort of thing to trade in parts for the whole, or at least it says that online for retail. i gave up grinding for parts of it after like 10 hours

 

Hehe, I have made this mistake a few times as well...remember to check the date of the "Original posted" and "Last Post".

It has been an unused thread for months now. Also, now with the new patch, we can create these Infinity Potions, using the "fragments" and putting it together that way.

 

sorry didn't mean to resurrect an old thread , i was looking for answers too, thanks for the update should make it easier to farm it now

 

It seems the bonus is not being applied to everything in the same way.
With pvp channel, scroll and tent buff you would have over 1050% of drop chance on rare items, meanwhile when you drop 1 accessory an hour on retail on stars end on gamez you supposed to drop 8-10 where in reality its 2-3.
The drop chance is lowered down for no reason, and you could see it on the market, barely anyone is selling stuff anymore.

 

Look I would hate to get into another math problems/concepts arguement, however it Really seems as if people are; completely clueless about what Random and Odds actually mean.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/random
http://www.icoachmath.com/math_dictionary/Random
https://www.math.net/random

Basically to put it in other words; Random is NOT predictable

So the idea, that if you want an item with (x) probability to drop, let's say a Boss Grade Ring (Yellow) with the droprate of 0,005%, then all you'd need to do; is continually kill off the one monster that has that drop rate of that item, And do it more than (1/0,005=200) 200 times, Then magically the item Has to drop, is utterly absurd.

The first "loot roll" and the very last "loot roll" that you produce, has the Exact same probability to be successful, it doesn't matter how many hours and kills you have spent, the odds are still the exact same.

 

You are missing one important part, random doesn't mean what you think it means. Random is short hand for an outcome effected by forces outside of the viewers understanding, this is even more true within a computer game. Speed runners often exploit 'random' number generation in games to create predictable outcomes. An expert in slight of hand can force a chosen result in a coin toss. I am willing to bet you could program a computer to predict the outcome of a given real world dice roll milliseconds after leaving someone's hand. Your definition of random assumes that different events can be observed following identical initial circumstances. Such a form of randomness cannot exist in a world governed by determinism under the laws of physics. But I agree at the end of the day the only advice to anyone who has not gotten a drop after 17 million hours is... grind another hour.